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    数值反演法在管网污染物溯源的研究进展

    Advances in Source Tracking of Pipe Network Pollutants Using Numerical Inversion Methods

    • 摘要: 随着城市化进程的推进,城市管网污染源识别在水环境治理中越来越重要。基于数值反演法的污染源溯源技术逐渐成为解决管网污染问题的重要工具。本文总结了近年来城市管网污染物溯源领域的主要研究进展,重点讨论了机理模型优化反演、概率统计法、数据同化与变分法、代理模型法等4类典型溯源技术。各类方法在物理可解释性、计算效率、不确定性表达能力及实时性等方面具有不同优势和局限。机理模型优化反演法能提供精确的污染源参数估计,但计算成本较高;概率统计法适合多解性强的复杂场景,但实现复杂度高;数据同化与变分法在动态污染事件追踪中具有优势,但对实时数据和误差协方差的依赖较强;代理模型法通过机器学习与深度学习显著提高了计算效率,适合大规模管网系统的快速源识别。未来研究应聚焦方法的融合与优化、深度学习和图神经网络的进一步应用、构建实时在线污染物溯源系统、提升方法的跨场景适应性与鲁棒性。这些创新和改进将显著提升管网污染物溯源技术的效率与精度,使其具有较强的应用可行性,并为污染源管理和决策支持提供有力的技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: With rapid urbanization and the continuous expansion of urban water infrastructure, pollution source identification in pipe networks has become a critical task for water environment management, risk control, and emergency response. Contamination events in drainage and water distribution networks are often hidden, transient, and uncertain, where source locations, release times, durations, and intensities are usually unknown. Furthermore, available monitoring points are frequently limited, and sensor data suffer from noise or missing values, rendering pollutant source tracing a typical inverse problem. Numerical inversion methods provide an effective framework to reconstruct source information from hydraulic, water-quality, and monitoring data. This review summarizes recent research progress on numerical inversion methods for pollutant source identification in urban pipe networks. Four major categories of methods are discussed: mechanistic model-based optimization, probabilistic methods, data assimilation, and surrogate model-based methods. Mechanistic model-based optimization methods employ hydraulic and water-quality transport models as forward simulators to estimate source parameters by minimizing the discrepancies between simulated and observed responses. While providing strong physical interpretability and quantitative source information, they usually require repeated forward simulations, incurring high computational costs in large-scale networks. Probabilistic methods describe source parameters using probability distributions; they are capable of quantifying uncertainty and are well-suited for inverse problems characterized by measurement errors and non-unique solutions, though their performance heavily depends on prior information, likelihood functions, and sampling efficiency. Data assimilation methods combine model predictions with real-time or quasi-real-time observations to dynamically update system states and source parameters, making them highly effective for online tracking despite their dependency on reliable sensor configurations. Surrogate model-based methods utilize machine learning or deep learning to approximate source-response relationships, significantly enhancing computational efficiency for rapid identification in large-scale networks, although their accuracy remains constrained by the quality of training samples and their physical interpretability requires further enhancement. In summary, these methods exhibit distinct trade-offs in physical interpretability, computational efficiency, uncertainty quantification, and real-time applicability. Mechanistic models are ideal for high-confidence offline analysis; probabilistic methods excel in risk-based decision-making; data assimilation supports online dynamic tracking; and surrogate models are best suited for rapid screening and early warning. Future research should focus on integrating mechanistic models with data-driven approaches, advancing the application of deep learning and graph neural networks, developing real-time online source identification systems, and enhancing robustness across diverse network topologies and pollution scenarios. These advancements will provide stronger technical support for precise pollutant tracing, contaminant control, and informed decision-making in urban pipeline water systems.

       

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