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    考虑失效模式演化的单桩式海上风机结构全寿命抗灾性能评估方法

    Life-Cycle Hazard Resistance Assessment of Monopile Offshore Wind Turbines Considering Failure Mode Evolution

    • 摘要: 单桩式海上风机结构(Monopile Offshore Wind Turbine Structure, MOWT)在服役期内将长期受到氯盐腐蚀与风浪疲劳效应引起的耦合损伤,导致其在全寿命周期内的抗灾性能呈现逐渐退化的趋势。MOWT多为高柔薄壁结构,对局部缺陷十分敏感,局部缺陷较大时,结构往往会发生由局部屈曲引起的整体失稳,此时结构失效不仅具有较大的突然性,使其安全储备显著降低。腐蚀疲劳耦合损伤作为MOWT在服役过程中逐渐形成和发展的局部缺陷,将导致结构局部屈曲失效风险逐渐提高,致使结构失效模式随服役时间增长不断变化。现有对此类结构全寿命抗灾性能的研究大多忽略腐蚀与疲劳的耦合损伤效应,导致无法考虑结构失效模式的时变性,所采用的性能量化指标亦仅适配单一失效模式,造成结构的全寿命失效风险评价存在较大偏差。为解决上述问题,本文首先基于多环境因素交互耦合损伤计算理论,考虑了腐蚀与疲劳耦合效应及其不确定性对MOWT失效模式的影响,并提出了一种基于模糊变换原理与隶属度理论的结构失效模式高效判别方法;在此基础上,进一步提出了一种时序多指标性能评估模型,实现了结构的全寿命抗多灾性能分析;最后,以一个5 MW的MOWT为例,分析了其在全寿命周期内多次多种强台风、地震等灾害对结构累积失效风险的影响。

       

      Abstract: The monopile offshore wind turbine (MOWT) structure is subjected to coupling damage caused by chloride corrosion and wind-wave fatigue over long-term service period, resulting in the gradual degradation of its hazard resistance throughout its life cycle. Moreover, MOWTs are mostly highly flexible, thin-walled structures that are very sensitive to local defects. When a local defect is large, overall instability driven by local buckling often occurs. Under these conditions, the structural failure also is highly sudden and significantly reduces the safety reserve. Corrosion-fatigue coupling damage, as a local defect that gradually forms and propagates during service, leads to a progressive increase in the risk of local buckling, causing the structure failure mode to evolve continuously over time. Most existing studies on the life-cycle hazard resistance of such structures ignore this coupling effect, rendering them unable to effectively identify time-varying failure modes. Furthermore, existing performance quantification indices are only suitable for a single failure mode, resulting in a large deviation in life-cycle failure risk assessments. To address these issues, based on the interactive coupling damage calculation theory of multi-environmental factors, this paper considers the influence of corrosion-fatigue coupling effect and its uncertainty on structural failure mode, and proposes an efficient failure mode discrimination method using the fuzzy transformation principle and membership degree theory. On this basis, a time-series multi-index performance evaluation model is further proposed to analyze the life-cycle hazard resistance performance of the structure. Finally, taking a 5 MW MOWT as an example, the influence of multiple strong typhoons and earthquakes on the cumulative failure risk of the structure is analyzed. The results show that the collapse probabilities obtained from three randomly generated hazard sequences are 3.40%, 27.10%, and 7.48%, respectively, demonstrating the necessity of employing Monte Carlo simulation to account for the randomness of hazard occurrence. Based on this approach, the probability of buckling-induced collapse under multi-hazard scenarios is estimated to be approximately 13.26% when the effects of long-term corrosion-fatigue damage are considered. In contrast, the collapse probability decreases to 7.49% when the coupled damage effect is neglected, further highlighting the significant influence of damage-induced defects on structural performance assessment. Finally, to validate the accuracy of the proposed evaluation method, comparisons with an actual engineering case were conducted; the results indicate that the relative error between the predicted and observed results is only 13.44%.

       

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