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    基于特征域增强与HGBR的气驱最小混相压力预测模型研究

    Prediction of Gas Flooding Minimum Miscibility Pressure Based on Feature-Domain Enhancement and Histogram-Based Gradient Boosting Regression

    • 摘要: 最小混相压力(MMP)是混相气驱注入压力设计的重要参数。现有经验关联式和表格型机器学习模型对油藏温度、原油组成、注入气组成及重质端性质之间的耦合关系描述不足,在复杂气源条件下可能存在较大预测偏差。基于710组公开文献气驱MMP实验数据,构建自适应频率增强Transformer(Adaptive Frequency Enhancement Transformer,AFEformer)特征域增强与直方图梯度提升回归(Histogram-based Gradient Boosting Regression,HGBR)耦合的MMP预测模型。将25维基础变量按固定顺序组织为样本内特征序列,用于建立截面变量的统一映射,不表示时间演化关系。经样本内归一化、频域增强和趋势−残差分解,将原始、增强和残差特征融合为75维模型输入。对比模型包括极端梯度提升(XGBoost)、极端随机树(Extra Trees)、径向基函数支持向量回归(SVR-RBF)、采用双曲正切激活函数的深层多层感知机(Deep MLP Tanh)、岭回归和原始特征HGBR。105组独立测试样本的结果表明,AFEformer HGBR的决定系数(R2)、均方根误差(RMSE)和最大绝对误差(MaxAE)分别为0.96401.6071 MPa和4.8067 MPa,在各模型中取得最高R2以及最低RMSE和MaxAE。与原始特征HGBR相比,R2提高0.0302,RMSE降低26.2%,MaxAE由14.2581 MPa降至4.8067 MPa。置换重要性和Shapley加性解释(SHAP)结果表明,油藏温度和注入气组成是MMP预测的主要信息来源。该模型能够减小大预测偏差对注入压力初选的影响,缩小实验验证的压力范围,提高复杂气源条件下的MMP评价效率。

       

      Abstract:
      Background and Objective Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) is a key parameter for injection-pressure design in miscible gas flooding. Conventional empirical correlations and tabular machine learning models provide limited descriptions of the coupled relationships among reservoir temperature, crude-oil composition, injection-gas composition, and heavy-end properties, often leading to large prediction deviations under complex gas-source conditions.
      Methods Based on 710 gas-flooding MMP measurements collected from published literature, this study developed an MMP prediction model coupling Adaptive Frequency Enhancement Transformer (AFEformer)-based feature-domain enhancement with histogram-based gradient boosting regression (HGBR). Twenty-five basic variables were arranged in a fixed order to form a within-sample feature sequence, providing a consistent mapping of cross-sectional variables for feature extraction without implying temporal dependence. Following sample-wise normalization, frequency-domain enhancement, and trend-residual decomposition, the original, enhanced, and residual features were fused into a 75-dimensional model input. The evaluated models included extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), extremely randomized trees (Extra Trees), support vector regression with a radial basis function kernel (SVR-RBF), a deep MLP with hyperbolic-tangent activation (Deep MLP Tanh), ridge regression, and HGBR using only the original features.
      Results Results for 105 independent test samples showed that the AFEformer-HGBR model achieved a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9640, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.6071 MPa, and a maximum absolute error (MaxAE) of 4.8067 MPa, outperforming all evaluated models. Compared with the original-feature HGBR, R2 increased by 0.0302, RMSE decreased by 26.2%, and MaxAE dropped from 14.2581 to 4.8067 MPa. The substantial reduction in RMSE and MaxAE indicates that the fused features improve overall prediction accuracy while strengthening the control of large deviations. In particular, the decrease in MaxAE shows that the model compresses the upper end of the error distribution rather than merely improving average predictive performance.
      Significance and Implications This characteristic is important for preliminary injection-pressure selection because a large error in an individual sample may lead to an unsuitable estimate of the required miscibility pressure. Permutation importance and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) identified reservoir temperature and injection-gas composition as the main information sources for MMP prediction. Their contributions are consistent with the effects of temperature and injected-gas components on phase behavior, component exchange, and multicomponent mass transfer during miscibility development. The model retains the physical meaning of the original variables while supplementing information on variable combinations and local deviations. By reducing the influence of large prediction deviations on preliminary injection-pressure selection, the model can narrow the pressure range requiring experimental verification and improve the efficiency of MMP evaluation under complex gas-source conditions.

       

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